Are We There Yet? The world’s oil supplies could last 40 years
or more, according to some projections. But serious trouble starts when
ready supplies begin
to decline, long before we get to the last drop. And many experts believe
that we’re already there.
Best Case Scenario:The
2004 British Petroleum Statistical
Review of World Energy
gave the most optimistic projection we could find, predicting that
global oil reserves will be gone in 2045, based on known reserves and current
rates of consumption, called the R/P ratio. By the same measure, US
reserves
will be exhausted in 2015. (Click here to download
the BP spreadsheet,
which shows a geographical breakdown.)
Optimists sometimes extend the 41 years by including
'unconventional' oil supplies, like the oil
tar
sands in Canada, even though getting at that oil sometimes causes more
trouble than it's worth. The US Department of Energy offers a fairly
pessimistic assessment
of Canadian oil supplies for instance, noting the Canadian
political will to protect the environment, the inefficiency of extraction
methods, and the hazards of extraction,
"Oil
sands projects are
large, use considerable amounts of energy, particularly natural gas,
and release both gaseous and particulate emissions into the atmosphere.
Although the oil sands processes have become more efficient and have
reduced
greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions per unit of production, an increase
in output could lead to an increase in total emissions. Other environmental
challenges associated with oil sands processing are disposing of
tailings, wastewater management, and land reclamation." We dare not
count on Canadian oil sands to replace dwindling supplies in other
parts of the world.
Forty-one years doesn’t seem like a very long time before the world’s
oil completely runs out. And yet, outside of the oil industry, many believe the
end will come much sooner.
The Peak Oil Case: The Oil
Depletion Analysis Center,
a British non-profit group independently studies
the activities of
oil producers and their reserves. Their November 2004 study reports
that
all of the major new oil-recovery projects scheduled to come on stream
over
the next six years are unlikely to boost supplies enough to meet
the world’s
growing needs. The report says, “Even with relatively low demand
growth, we see an unbridgeable supply/demand gap opening up after
2007.” (Click here to download
their report in pdf).
Geologist
Colin Campbell agrees that the peak will occur in 2007, according
to data he published in February 2005 at www.peakoil.net.
Working with
other European scientists, Campbell founded
the Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas (ASPO) and the
group
is proposing
that the world community should develop an equitable ‘soft
landing’ strategy
to avoid conflicts as the oil runs out. Read their proposed international
agreement here: Uppsala
Protocol.
Government Projections: The US Energy
Department’s
Energy Information Administration data
shows no foreseeable gap between supply and
demand. But the most recent Oil Market Report from
the International
Energy Agency (an international government group)
reveals that world oil demand reached 85.6 million barrels per day
(mb/d)
in the fourth quarter of 2004, and global supplies averaged 84.4
mb/d
that quarter.
Technically, demand already outstripped supply last year, according
to this IEA data.
What Now?
Some argue that the Oil Peak will lead to
a new market equilibrium: prices will rise and consumers will cut back
or switch to alternative
energy
sources. New technologies and investment for extraction will
guarantee adequate
oil supplies during that transition. See for example, one
piece written for the Society of Petroleum Engineers last summer
called, “Doomsday
Rhetoric Ignores Signs of Growth in Global Production Capacity.”
The
other side paints a different story. Caltech physics professor
David Goodstein writes, “As we learned in 1973, the
effects of an oil shortage can be immediate and drastic,
and it may take years, perhaps decades, to
replace the vast infrastructure that supports the manufacture,
distribution, and consumption of the 20 million barrels
of oil we Americans gobble up
each day.” In his book, Out of Gas: The End of
the Age of Oil, Goodstein urges that we undertake
a massive national commitment to developing alternative
energy sources – comparable to the 1960’s race
to the moon – because “civilization
as we know it will not survive unless we can find a way
to live without fossil fuels.”
Richard Heinberg, another
Peak Oil writer notes that more than 60% of the world’s
remaining oil supplies are located in the Middle East
- Iraq alone has 11% of the proved reserves – and
predicts devastating ‘resource
wars’ if the United States cannot immediately reduce
our dependence on imported oil.
Can We Live Without It?
A recent National Geographic
article, “The
End of Cheap Oil” warned
that when oil prices rise, every transported product also becomes
more expensive. Food, for example, travels an
average of 1,300 miles
from farm to plate. The article noted that
it takes almost a
gallon of oil to
make one pound of beef, and nearly 7 gallons
to make one tire. Oil is also used to make medical implants,
computers, and
fertilizers. And 90%
of all
organic chemicals come from oil (including
cosmetics, pharmaceuticals
and plastics). The 20 million barrels of oil
per day consumed in
the US goes
for: Transportation
68%, Agriculture and Industry 24%, Residential
Heat 4%, Commercial Heat 2%, and Generating
Electricity 2% according to the BP Statistical
Review.
Who’s Driving This Train?
Campbell, Goodstein, Heinberg and others
warn that governments will not address
the coming
oil crisis
until the energy
train actually crashes.
Their Peak
Oil books, websites, and conferences aim to spark
a public outcry that forces policy
makers into timely action. And indeed, the media
is beginning to pick up their story. You
can google ‘peak oil’ and
get dozens of contemporary articles. You
can also find a handful
of very good books. We list our favorites
below.
Confronting the oil problems in the 1970’s,
President Jimmy Carter said, “We
must face the prospect of changing our basic
ways of living. This change will either be made
on our
own
initiative in a planned way, or forced
on us with
chaos and suffering by the inexorable laws of
nature.”
Looking back, we can wonder if
Carter’s energy programs might have averted
the present crisis had they not been aborted
in the 1980s. But even with time running out,
we can still make the right choices – better
now than later. In the private realm, we can
prepare to live comfortably
with fewer
resources,
reduce our personal debts, shop locally, and
conserve. On the national level we can urge
our leaders to
do all of the above, while also rebuilding
or
replacing our food systems, energy networks,
and foreign policies.
The Party’s Over: Oil, War and the
Fate of Industrial Societies, by Richard
Heinberg Out of Gas: The End of the Age of
Oil,
by David Goodstein. The End of Oil: On the Edge of a
Perilous New World, by Paul Roberts
Peak
Oil websites: ASPO’s
website
www.peakoil.net has
links to other Peak Oil sites as well
as news articles and the proceedings
of their annual
conferences.
Another good site is www.hubbertpeak.com,
named after the scientist who first
conceived and
predicted the
problem.
